May 23, 2026
Sparks vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Saturday's WNBA game [5/23/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, May 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/23.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, May 23, 2026—are live with the Raptors' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Chennedy Carter and Dearica Hamby lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 23, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 14.4% |
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 14.3% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 13.6% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 13.1% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 12.1% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 12.1% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 11.4% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 11.3% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.6% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 10.2% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 9.7% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.1% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 8.9% |
| Kiki Rice (Tempo) | 8.7% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.8% |
| Luisa Geiselsoder (Fire) | 7.3% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.8% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 6.6% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.5% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.5% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Plum | Sparks | 2.2% | +1000 | 11.3% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 1.4% | +1200 | 9.1% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 1.2% | +1400 | 7.8% |
| Laura Juskaite | Tempo | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Kiki Rice | Tempo | 0.3% | +1100 | 8.7% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 0.2% | +1400 | 6.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, May 23, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Chennedy Carter and Dearica Hamby lead our first basket projections, while Kelsey Plum shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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