May 23, 2026
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Read Article Sparks vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Saturday's WNBA game [5/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces predictions for WNBA Saturday.
WNBA action continues on Saturday at 8:00 PM ET as the Los Angeles Sparks square off with the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Sparks vs. Aces game.
The Aces, powered by A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter, will face off against the Sparks, featuring Kelsey Plum, Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sparks vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Sparks and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Aces a 78% chance of defeating the Sparks.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Sparks and Aces each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 181.5 points has a 70% chance of staying under.
Sparks vs. Aces odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sparks | Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-110) | -9.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +330 | -420 |
| Total | o181.5 (-106) | u181.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sparks vs. Aces picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Aces -9.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Aces | -420 |
| Total | Under 181.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 181.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sparks vs. Aces player props
Looking for Los Angeles vs. Las Vegas WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Kelsey Plum is expected to lead the Sparks with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 27 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists for the Aces.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sparks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Plum | 19 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 35 |
| Nneka Ogwumike | 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 36 |
| Dearica Hamby | 18 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 38 |
| Ariel Atkins | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| Erica Wheeler | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
Aces prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 27 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 55 |
| Jackie Young | 18 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 38 |
| Chennedy Carter | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 28 |
| Chelsea Gray | 11 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 33 |
| Jewell Loyd | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 22 |
Sparks vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Aces and Sparks at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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