Sun vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 18 points in Wednesday's WNBA matchup [7/22/2026]

The Indiana Fever will face the Connecticut Sun in WNBA action at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday, commencing at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Fever as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Fever game.

The Fever, who have the likes of Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, are set to take on the Sun, who feature Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Leila Lacan and Diamond Miller.

Clark, the hoops superstar making headlines with the Fever, is expected to deliver a standout performance with a projected 18 points and 2 threes.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sun vs. Fever prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Sun and Fever, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Fever an 80.0% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sun (+10.5) have a 56.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 63.3% chance of staying under,.

Sun vs. Fever odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sun	Fever
Spread	+10.5 (-104)	-10.5 (+100)
Moneyline	+456	-500
Total	o178.5 (+102)	u178.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sun vs. Fever picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sun +10.5	-104
Moneyline	Sun	+456
Total	Under 178.5	-108

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sun vs. Fever player props

WNBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on Wednesday's Connecticut vs. Indiana game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Olivia Nelson-Ododa is expected to lead the Sun with 13 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kelsey Mitchell is projected to have 23 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fever.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kelsey Mitchell striking first with a 14.3% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
O. Nelson-Ododa	13	7	2	0	31
Leila Lacan	13	2	4	1	29
Diamond Miller	9	3	1	1	18
Aneesah Morrow	8	6	1	1	20
Kennedy Burke	8	3	1	1	18

Fever prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fever:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Mitchell	23	2	3	3	34
Caitlin Clark	18	4	7	2	40
Aliyah Boston	16	8	4	1	37
S. Cunningham	9	3	1	2	18
M. Billings	7	4	1	0	17

Sun vs. Fever game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's action between the Fever and Sun at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever
• Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Conclusion

We predict the Fever, with an 80.0% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.