WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Game 3 of 2026 Finals

Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, October 21, 2026—are live with the Valkyries' Gabby Williams projected as the most likely player to score first in tonight's Game 3 matchup.

These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.

Williams, Angel Reese and Allisha Gray lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.

WNBA Finals first basket predictions tonight (Game 3, 2026)

• Gabby Williams (Valkyries): 18.8% probability
• Angel Reese (Dream): 13.3% probability
• Allisha Gray (Dream): 12.3% probability
• Jordin Canada (Dream): 10.1% probability
• Cecilia Zandalasini (Valkyries): 9.6% probability
• Rhyne Howard (Dream): 9.2% probability
• Veronica Burton (Valkyries): 8.5% probability
• Kayla Thornton (Valkyries): 8.3% probability
• Naz Hillmon (Dream): 5.0% probability
• Kiah Stokes (Valkyries): 4.7% probability

WNBA first basket picks today (Game 3, 2026)

• Gabby Williams (Valkyries): 4.5% edge at +595
• Jordin Canada (Dream): 1.0% edge at +990
• Allisha Gray (Dream): 0.2% edge at +730

Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.

For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 10/21.

Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket

For Game 3 of the 2026 Finals on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, Gabby Williams, Angel Reese and Allisha Gray lead our first basket projections, with Williams shaping as the strongest value play at +500. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.

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