Valkyries vs. Aces prediction favors Las Vegas to win Game 4 [2026 WNBA Playoffs]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Valkyries and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces a 54.7% chance of defeating the Valkyries in Game 4 of the series. According to our model, the Valkyries (+4.5) have a 60.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 156.5-point over/under has a 65.3% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Valkyries +4.5 (-108) / Aces -4.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Valkyries +163, Aces -170
• Total: Over/Under 156.5 (-104/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for Game 4

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Valkyries +4.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Valkyries @ 38¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 156.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 156.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top Game 4 player props

Betting on Valkyries vs. Aces WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Gabby Williams is expected to lead the Valkyries with 13 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 27 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.

When evaluating the first basket market, A'ja Wilson is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 18.5% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Valkyries player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Valkyries are:

• Gabby Williams: 13 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST
• Janelle Salaun: 12 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST
• Tiffany Hayes: 10 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST
• Veronica Burton: 9 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST
• Cecilia Zandalasini: 8 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST

Aces player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

• A'ja Wilson: 27 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST
• Jackie Young: 21 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST
• Chelsea Gray: 12 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST
• Stephanie Talbot: 9 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
• Jewell Loyd: 7 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST

Game info & tip-off details

Friday's Game 4 between the Aces and Valkyries at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to start at 9:30 PM ET.

• Who: Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Friday, October 9, 2026
• Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 54.7% win probability, will likely beat the Valkyries in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.