Dream vs. Liberty prediction favors New York to win Game 4 [2026 WNBA Playoffs]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Dream and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 63.9% chance of beating the Dream in Game 4 of the series. According to our model, the Liberty (-3.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 56.3% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dream +3.5 (-115) / Liberty -3.5 (+108)
• Moneyline: Dream +135, Liberty -133
• Total: Over/Under 172.5 (+113/-122)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for Game 4

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Liberty -3.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Liberty @ 57¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 172.5 @ 47¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 172.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top Game 4 player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Friday's Atlanta vs. New York matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Allisha Gray is expected to lead the Dream with 18 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 19 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists for the Liberty.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Breanna Stewart striking first with a 14.8% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Dream player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Dream are:

• Allisha Gray: 18 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST
• Angel Reese: 17 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST
• Rhyne Howard: 16 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST
• Jordin Canada: 12 PTS, 3 REB, 8 AST
• DeWanna Bonner: 8 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST

Liberty player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

• Breanna Stewart: 19 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST
• Jonquel Jones: 15 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST
• Sabrina Ionescu: 14 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST
• Pauline Astier: 8 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST
• Rebecca Allen: 7 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST

Game info & tip-off details

Friday's Game 4 between the Liberty and Dream at Barclays Center is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Friday, October 9, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 63.9% win probability, will likely beat the Dream in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.