Aces vs. Valkyries prediction favors Golden State to win Game 1 [2026 WNBA Playoffs]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Valkyries, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Valkyries a 53.7% chance of beating the Aces in Game 1 of the series. According to our model, the Valkyries (-1.5) have a 53.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 160.5 points has a 59.3% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Aces +1.5 (-127) / Valkyries -1.5 (+122)
• Moneyline: Aces -113, Valkyries +108
• Total: Over/Under 160.5 (+104/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for Game 1

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Valkyries -1.5 @ 45¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Valkyries @ 48¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 160.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 160.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top Game 1 player props

Betting on Las Vegas vs. Golden State WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 23 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Gabby Williams is projected to have 13 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Valkyries.

For early game action, the data identifies A'ja Wilson as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

• A'ja Wilson: 23 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST
• Jackie Young: 17 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST
• Jewell Loyd: 12 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
• Chelsea Gray: 9 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST
• Stephanie Talbot: 9 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST

Valkyries player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Valkyries:

• Gabby Williams: 13 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST
• Janelle Salaun: 12 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST
• Veronica Burton: 9 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST
• Tiffany Hayes: 9 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST
• Cecilia Zandalasini: 8 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST

Game info & tip-off details

Sunday's Game 1 between the Valkyries and Aces at Chase Center is scheduled to start at 4:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
• Venue: Chase Center

Conclusion

We predict the Valkyries, with a 53.7% win probability, will likely beat the Aces in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.