Fever vs. Aces prediction sees Caitlin Clark projected to score 23 points in Game 3 [2026 WNBA Playoffs]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Fever and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces a 63.5% chance of defeating the Fever in Game 3 of the series. According to our model, the Fever (+4.5) have a 54.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 181.5 points has a 56.1% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Fever +4.5 (+104) / Aces -4.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Fever +170, Aces -185
• Total: Over/Under 181.5 (+100/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for Game 3

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Fever +4.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Fever @ 37¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Under 181.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 181.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top Game 3 player props

Looking for Indiana vs. Las Vegas WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Kelsey Mitchell is expected to lead the Fever with 25 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 25 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.

When evaluating the first basket market, A'ja Wilson is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 18.1% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Fever player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Fever are:

• Kelsey Mitchell: 25 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST
• Caitlin Clark: 23 PTS, 4 REB, 9 AST
• Aliyah Boston: 16 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST
• Makayla Timpson: 7 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST
• Sophie Cunningham: 5 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST

Aces player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

• A'ja Wilson: 25 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST
• Jackie Young: 20 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST
• Chelsea Gray: 11 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST
• Stephanie Talbot: 9 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST
• Jewell Loyd: 9 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST

Game info & tip-off details

Thursday's Game 3 between the Aces and Fever at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to commence at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 63.5% win probability, will likely beat the Fever in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.