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Read Article WNBA first basket predictions and picks for Playoffs today, Friday, October 23, 2026
First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 10/23.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, October 23, 2026, are live with the Valkyries' Gabby Williams projected as the most likely player to score first. Angel Reese and Allisha Gray round out the top three.
Every pick comes from our daily WNBA player projections, using detailed first basket stats such as player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups. We also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to our projected probabilities.
WNBA Playoffs first basket predictions today: Top 10 players
- Gabby Williams (Valkyries): 19.0% probability
- Angel Reese (Dream): 12.8%
- Allisha Gray (Dream): 11.3%
- Cecilia Zandalasini (Valkyries): 10.8%
- Jordin Canada (Dream): 10.3%
- Rhyne Howard (Dream): 9.1%
- Veronica Burton (Valkyries): 8.4%
- Kayla Thornton (Valkyries): 7.3%
- Naz Hillmon (Dream): 6.4%
- Kiah Stokes (Valkyries): 4.6%
Best WNBA first basket bet tonight
The highest first basket probability doesn't necessarily mean the best bet. We identify betting value by comparing our model's probabilities with the implied probabilities of available sportsbook odds.
Gabby Williams first basket scorer
- Odds: +519 (FanDuel)
- Edge: 2.8%
- Probability: 19%
- Matchup: Valkyries vs. Dream (1:00 PM ET)
Gabby Williams has a 19% chance of scoring the first basket in his matchup tonight according to our model, compared with the 16.2% implied by FanDuel's +519 odds. That's a 2.8% edge, the largest we've identified on Friday's WNBA slate. Williams is also our number one most likely in the list of first basket scorers above, so this pick ranks well on both probability and price.
Our WNBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our WNBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.
About these WNBA first basket predictions
Dimers' WNBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's expected scoring opportunities.
Projections may change as starting lineups are confirmed. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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