Sep 4, 2026
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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/22.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, July 22, 2026—are live with the Aces' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Kahleah Copper and Paige Bueckers lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 22, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.5% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 15.4% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 15.2% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 14.9% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 14.5% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.3% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 14.1% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 13.6% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 13.3% |
| Sydney Taylor (Sky) | 13.0% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 12.9% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 12.8% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 12.5% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 12.2% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 12.2% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.9% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 11.7% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 11.6% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 11.5% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 11.4% |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun) | 11.3% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 11.3% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.3% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 11.1% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 10.9% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 10.7% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 10.6% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.5% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 10.5% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 10.3% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 10.2% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 10.0% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 9.9% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 9.4% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 9.3% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.1% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.8% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 8.7% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.5% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 8.2% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 8.1% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.1% |
| Monique Akoa-Makani (Mercury) | 8.0% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 7.9% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 7.7% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 7.6% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 7.2% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 7.1% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 7.0% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.0% |
| Odyssey Sims (Wings) | 6.8% |
| Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics) | 6.8% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.7% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun) | 6.5% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 6.3% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 6.0% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 5.9% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 5.4% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.0% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 4.1% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Taylor | Sky | 3.9% | +1000 | 13.0% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 3.2% | +800 | 14.3% |
| Kayla McBride | Lynx | 2.9% | +860 | 13.3% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 2.0% | +850 | 12.5% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 1.3% | +900 | 11.3% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker | Fire | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 1.2% | +850 | 11.7% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 1.1% | +970 | 10.5% |
| Marine Johannes | Liberty | 0.7% | +1300 | 7.9% |
| Georgia Amoore | Mystics | 0.7% | +1460 | 7.1% |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Liberty | 0.5% | +850 | 11.1% |
| NaLyssa Smith | Aces | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
| Jade Melbourne | Storm | 0.3% | +1240 | 7.7% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 0.1% | +1100 | 8.5% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 0.1% | +840 | 10.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, July 22, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Kahleah Copper and Paige Bueckers lead our first basket projections, while Sydney Taylor shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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