WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, July 16, 2026
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/16.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, July 16, 2026—are live with the Wings' Paige Bueckers projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Bueckers, Breanna Stewart and Kiki Iriafen lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 16, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 15.2% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 14.3% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 14.2% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 12.7% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 11.4% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 11.0% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.9% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 10.3% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 10.1% |
| Frieda Buhner (Fire) | 10.1% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 9.7% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.7% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.3% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 9.0% |
| Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics) | 8.1% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 7.9% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 7.9% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 7.0% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 6.5% |
| Alysha Clark (Wings) | 4.5% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers | Wings | 2.8% | +710 | 15.2% |
| Azzi Fudd | Wings | 2.0% | +1200 | 9.7% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker | Fire | 1.8% | +1100 | 10.1% |
| Jessica Shepard | Wings | 1.6% | +800 | 12.7% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Wings | 0.8% | +1300 | 7.9% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 0.2% | +1000 | 9.3% |
| Pauline Astier | Liberty | 0.2% | +1200 | 7.9% |
| Bridget Carleton | Fire | 0.1% | +1020 | 9.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/16.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, July 16, 2026, Paige Bueckers, Breanna Stewart and Kiki Iriafen lead our first basket projections, with Bueckers shaping as the strongest value play at +710. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
