Fire vs. Sun prediction: Why Connecticut is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [7/14/2026]
Get Portland Fire vs Connecticut Sun predictions for WNBA Tuesday.
The Connecticut Sun will take on the Portland Fire in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Tuesday, commencing at 11:00 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Sun as the most likely winner of the Fire vs. Sun game.
The Sun, with the likes of Brittney Griner, Leila Lacan and Olivia Nelson-Ododa, are set to take on the Fire, whose lineup includes Megan Gustafson, Carla Leite and Sarah Barker.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fire vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Sun a 63.8% chance of defeating the Fire.
According to our model, the Sun (-2.5) have a 54.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 184.5 points has a 78.5% chance of staying under,.
Fire vs. Sun odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Fire | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-104) | -2.5 (+102) |
| Moneyline | +250 | -115 |
| Total | o184.5 (-115) | u184.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fire vs. Sun picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun -2.5 | hard_rock+102 |
| Moneyline | Sun | fanatics-115 |
| Total | Under 184.5 | novig-115 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 184.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fire vs. Sun player props
WNBA prop bets are a great way to wager on the Fire vs. Sun matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Megan Gustafson is expected to lead the Fire with 12 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assists, while Brittney Griner is projected to have 13 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sun.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Brittney Griner striking first with a 13.2% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fire prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Fire are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Gustafson | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| Carla Leite | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Sarah Barker | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
| B. Carleton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 |
| Emily Engstler | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
Sun prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 |
| Leila Lacan | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 29 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 23 |
| Aaliyah Edwards | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| Kennedy Burke | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
Fire vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Sun and Fire at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to begin at 11:00 AM ET.
- Who: Portland Fire vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Tuesday, July 14, 2026
- Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Sun, with a 63.8% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
