World Cup parlay picks: Today's group stage best bets at +422 odds [June 25, 2026]

Leg 1: Curacao vs. Ivory Coast under 3.5 goals (-142)

Under 3.5 goals carries a 60.7% Dimers model probability, supported by a BTTS: No probability of 57% and a 50% chance Ivory Coast win with a clean sheet, all pointing toward a controlled affair.

Ivory Coast are roughly 80% favorites to win the match and their most recent results include a late 1-0 win over Ecuador and a 2-1 loss to Germany, both low-scoring affairs themselves.

Curacao have faced 53 shots in their two matches so far, and did allow 7 goals to Germany in their opener, but then managed to hold a clean sheet in their second match.

With the top four most likely correct scores all featuring Ivory Coast wins of three goals or fewer, the 3.5 line is our play to make, and even gets some value with a 2.4% edge at its best odds.

Leg 2: Japan vs. Sweden over 2.5 goals (-115)

At a 56% probability, this is an edge play built on urgency from both sides.

Japan sits level with Netherlands both in points and goal differential, but behind on total goals scored, while Sweden is one point behind with three, meaning a win would pull the Swedes into second place, pending the likely win by the Netherlands over Tunisia.

The Oranje's easy draw against eliminated Tunisia means Japan cannot afford to sit back if they want a shot at the first-place spot, and they need a result to protect second place.

Backed by a 57% BTTS probability, and both sides possessing genuine attacking threats, Sweden's campaign opened with an impressive 5-1 win over Tunisia, with Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, and Mattias Svanberg all finding the net, while Japan followed up a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands with a clinical 4-0 demolition of Tunisia.

The second-most likely correct score of the match, a 2-1 Japan victory at 9.7%, lands right alongside the other datapoints.

Leg 3: Paraguay-Australia BTTS: No (-156)

This is the strongest individual leg of the parlay at 62% implied probability, and the matchup context makes it the most compelling play of the three.

With a draw enough to settle the group for either side, there isn't much incentive for either Australia or Paraguay to take chances Thursday, and that conservative setup dramatically suppresses the likelihood of both teams finding the net.

Paraguay are already down their suspended centerpiece, Migeul Almirón, blunting an attack that has managed just two goals so far, while Australia are happy to sit on a draw with first place out of reach.

The under 2.5 total goals line sits at a heavy -300, consistent with our 70% model probability, and Australia's superior goal difference gives them the luxury of a draw, while a loss drops Paraguay to below 50% odds to advance as a third-place team, incentivizing both clubs to play tight, cautious football.

Only one of our top five most likely correct scores sees both teams on the board, a 1-1 draw.

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Why bet this World Cup 2026 parlay on Thursday

By building a three-leg World Cup parlay featuring one bet from each Group on the World Cup schedule, we can utilize the best Dimers Pro predictions in each match, leveraging each high probability pick into one longer odds bet for a bigger payout.