Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/23/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 40.4% chance of Alaves winning, a 33.1% chance for Rayo Vallecano, and a 26.4% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under, according to our model.

Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Alaves	Rayo Vallecano	Draw
+145	+190	+240

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-110	-125

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Alaves	+145
Total Goals	Under 2.5	-125

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
ALV 1-1 RAY	12.6%
ALV 1-0 RAY	10.4%
ALV 0-1 RAY	9.2%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.3% chance of both Alaves and Rayo Vallecano finding the net and a 47.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's La Liga matchup between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to begin in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano
• Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Alaves has a 40.4% win probability on Saturday, Rayo Vallecano has a 33.1% win probability, and there is a 26.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.