Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/23/2026]

Real Madrid will take on Athletic Bilbao in La Liga action on Saturday, beginning at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven La Liga model predicts Real Madrid as the most likely winner of the Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao game.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction: Who will win?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's La Liga match between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model suggests a 61.1% chance of Real Madrid winning, an 18.6% chance for Athletic Bilbao, and a 20.3% chance of a draw.

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Market	Real Madrid	Athletic Bilbao	Draw
Moneyline	-190	+440	+360

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Athletic Bilbao	+440

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Athletic Bilbao to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-1 Real Madrid win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
MAD 2-1 ATB	9.9%
MAD 1-1 ATB	9.3%
MAD 2-0 ATB	9.1%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 58.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 41.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's La Liga matchup between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao is scheduled to begin in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao
• Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Real Madrid has a 61.1% win probability on Saturday, Athletic Bilbao has an 18.6% win probability, and there is a 20.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.