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Alaves vs. Villareal prediction, odds, La Liga picks [3/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Alaves vs Villareal predictions for La Liga Friday.
Alaves and Villareal will lock horns in La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Friday, with kickoff at 4:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced La Liga model predicts Villareal as the most likely winner of the Alaves vs. Villareal game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Alaves vs. Villareal prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's La Liga match between Alaves and Villareal 10,000 times as part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model indicates a 30.1% chance of Alaves winning, a 44.1% chance for Villareal, and a 25.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Alaves vs. Villareal odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Alaves | Villareal | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +225 | +130 | +240 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +104 | -128 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alaves vs. Villareal picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Villareal | +130 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | +104 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Villareal to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Alaves vs. Villareal: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ALV 1-1 VIL | 12.3% |
| ALV 0-1 VIL | 10.5% |
| ALV 1-2 VIL | 9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.0% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Alaves vs. Villareal game-day updates and essential details
Friday's La Liga action between Alaves and Villareal at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to start in the USA at 4:00 PM ET.
- Who: Alaves vs. Villareal
- Date: Friday, March 13, 2026
- Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Alaves has a 30.1% win probability on Friday, Villareal has a 44.1% win probability, and there is a 25.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alaves vs. Villareal insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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