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Diamondbacks vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Friday.
The Chicago Cubs will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Wrigley Field on Friday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
Colin Rea (3-1, 4.61 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Cubs, while the Diamondbacks will counter with Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.14 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Diamondbacks.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's Diamondbacks vs. Cubs matchup, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Cubs a 52% chance of beating the Diamondbacks.
According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of seven runs has a 59% chance of going over.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs odds [5/1/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Diamondbacks | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-184) | -1.5 (+153) |
| Moneyline | +119 | -138 |
| Total | o7 (-112) | u7 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Diamondbacks +1.5 | -184 |
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | +119 |
| Total | Over 7 | -112 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Cubs and Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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