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Read Article Diamondbacks vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Chicago Cubs will face the Arizona Diamondbacks in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Sunday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
The Cubs will send Matthew Boyd (1-1, 7.00 ERA) to the mound, while the Diamondbacks have opted for Merrill Kelly (1-2, 9.20 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Diamondbacks vs. Cubs game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Diamondbacks and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Cubs a 57% chance of defeating the Diamondbacks.
According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the run line, while the 11.5-run over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs odds [5/3/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Diamondbacks | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-145) | -1.5 (+120) |
| Moneyline | +132 | -149 |
| Total | o11.5 (-115) | u11.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Diamondbacks +1.5 | -145 |
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | +132 |
| Total | Under 11.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 11.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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