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Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves prediction, odds, La Liga picks [1/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Atletico Madrid vs Alaves predictions for La Liga Sunday.
La Liga action continues on Sunday at 10:15 AM ET as Alaves faces off with the favored Atletico Madrid at Metropolitano Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven La Liga model predicts Atletico Madrid as the most likely winner of the Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's La Liga match between Atletico Madrid and Alaves 10,000 times as part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently indicates a 66.1% chance of Atletico Madrid winning, a 13.0% chance for Alaves, and a 20.9% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Atletico Madrid | Alaves | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -275 | +850 | +410 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -112 | -108 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alaves | +850 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -108 |
According to our best La Liga bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.
Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Atletico Madrid win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ATM 1-0 ALV | 13.7% |
| ATM 2-0 ALV | 13.2% |
| ATM 1-1 ALV | 9.8% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 43.6% chance that both Atletico Madrid and Alaves score, and a 56.4% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations.
Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's La Liga action between Atletico Madrid and Alaves at Metropolitano Stadium is scheduled to start in the United States at 10:15 AM ET.
- Who: Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves
- Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
- Time: 10:15 AM ET/7:15AM PT
- Venue: Metropolitano Stadium
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Atletico Madrid has a 66.1% win probability on Sunday, Alaves has a 13.0% win probability, and there is a 20.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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