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Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction, odds, La Liga picks [4/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predictions for La Liga Saturday.
Atletico Madrid will square off with Athletic Bilbao in La Liga action at Metropolitano Stadium on Saturday, beginning at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced La Liga model predicts Atletico Madrid as the most likely winner of the Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's La Liga match between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model suggests a 47.1% chance of Atletico Madrid winning, a 27.4% chance for Athletic Bilbao, and a 25.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Atletico Madrid | Athletic Bilbao | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +105 | +265 | +260 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -135 | -102 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Athletic Bilbao | +265 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -102 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ATM 1-1 ATB | 12.1% |
| ATM 1-0 ATB | 11% |
| ATM 2-1 ATB | 9.3% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's La Liga matchup between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao at Metropolitano Stadium is scheduled to commence in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Metropolitano Stadium
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Atletico Madrid has a 47.1% win probability on Saturday, Athletic Bilbao has a 27.4% win probability, and there is a 25.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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