Atletico Madrid vs. Girona prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/17/2026]

La Liga action continues on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET as Girona locks horns with Atletico Madrid at Metropolitano Stadium.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced La Liga model predicts Atletico Madrid as the most likely winner of the Atletico Madrid vs. Girona game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Atletico Madrid vs. Girona prediction: Who will win?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's La Liga match between Atletico Madrid and Girona, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model indicates a 54.5% chance of Atletico Madrid winning, a 22.5% chance for Girona, and a 23.0% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of going over, according to our model.

Atletico Madrid vs. Girona odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Atletico Madrid	Girona	Draw
-120	+330	+300

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-175	+125

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Atletico Madrid vs. Girona picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Atletico Madrid	-120
Total Goals	Under 2.5	+125

According to our best La Liga bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Atletico Madrid vs. Girona: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
ATM 1-1 GIR	10.8%
ATM 1-0 GIR	10%
ATM 2-1 GIR	9.8%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 55.4% chance of both Atletico Madrid and Girona finding the net and a 44.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Atletico Madrid vs. Girona game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's La Liga action between Atletico Madrid and Girona at Metropolitano Stadium is scheduled to commence in the United States at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atletico Madrid vs. Girona
• Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Metropolitano Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Atletico Madrid has a 54.5% win probability on Sunday, Girona has a 22.5% win probability, and there is a 23.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.