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Orioles vs. Yankees prediction: Yankees favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees predictions for MLB Monday.
The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will meet in MLB action at Yankee Stadium on Monday, starting at 7:05 PM ET.
The Yankees will have Cam Schlittler (4-1, 1.51 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Shane Baz (1-2, 4.50 ERA) for the Orioles.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Yankees as the most likely winner of the Orioles vs. Yankees game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Orioles vs. Yankees prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Orioles and Yankees, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Yankees a 64% chance of defeating the Orioles.
According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 52% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Orioles vs. Yankees odds [5/4/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | +185 | -205 |
| Total | o8.5 (-105) | u8.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Orioles vs. Yankees picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Orioles +1.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Orioles | +185 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Orioles vs. Yankees game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Orioles at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:05 PM ET.
- Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
- Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
- Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05PM PT
- Venue: Yankee Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Orioles in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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