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Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction: Detroit favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers predictions for MLB Monday.
MLB action continues on Monday at 6:40 PM ET as the Boston Red Sox square off with the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park.
Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.70 ERA) will be on the bump for the Tigers, while the Red Sox have opted for Payton Tolle (0-1, 3.38 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Tigers as the most likely winner of the Red Sox vs. Tigers game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Tigers, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Tigers a 66% chance of defeating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of seven runs has a 53% chance of going over.
Red Sox vs. Tigers odds [5/4/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Red Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-114) | -1.5 (+102) |
| Moneyline | +194 | -235 |
| Total | o7 (-102) | u7 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Tigers picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox +1.5 | -114 |
| Moneyline | Red Sox | +194 |
| Total | Over 7 | -102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Tigers game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB action between the Tigers and Red Sox at Comerica Park is scheduled to begin at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
- Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Comerica Park
Conclusion
We predict the Tigers, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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