Red Sox vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [7/12/2026]
Get Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Sunday.
The New York Mets will face the Boston Red Sox, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Citi Field on Sunday, starting at 1:40 PM ET.
Zach Thornton (0-1, 4.36 ERA) will start on the mound for the Mets, up against Payton Tolle (5-6, 3.14 ERA) for the Red Sox.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 52.6% win probability over the Red Sox.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Red Sox vs. Mets matchup, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 52.6% chance of beating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 64.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51.9% chance of staying under,.
Red Sox vs. Mets odds [7/12/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Red Sox | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-144) |
| Moneyline | -117 | +113 |
| Total | o8.5 (+108) | u8.5 (-117) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | polymarket-144 |
| Moneyline | Mets | novig+113 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | novig+108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Red Sox at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 52.6% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
