CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC prediction, odds, MLS picks [7/16/2026]
Get CF Montreal vs Toronto FC predictions for MLS Thursday.
MLS action continues on Thursday at 7:30 PM ET as Toronto squares off with Montreal at Saputo Stadium.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLS model projects Montreal as the most likely winner of the Montreal vs. Toronto game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC prediction: Who will win?
Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 44.4% chance of Montreal winning, a 32.1% chance for Toronto, and a 23.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 60.6% chance of going over, according to our model.
CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC odds
We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Montreal | Toronto | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +140 | +190 | +265 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -150 | +130 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Montreal @ +140 via ESPN BET
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -150 via DraftKings
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Montreal to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC: Correct score predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| MTL 1-1 TFC | 10.6% |
| MTL 2-1 TFC | 9.1% |
| MTL 1-0 TFC | 7.5% |
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between Montreal and Toronto in MLS at Saputo Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: CF Montreal vs. Toronto FC
- Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Saputo Stadium
World Cup 2026 watch: Caden Clark (USA)
Montreal attacking midfielder Caden Clark is one to watch for USMNT supporters as excitement ramps up ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026—an event sparking interest in World Cup news and early discussions about who will win the World Cup. With the United States set to face Australia, Paraguay, and Türkiye in Group D next year, Clark's club form will be watched closely.
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Montreal has a 44.4% win probability on Thursday, Toronto has a 32.1% win probability, and there is a 23.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
