MLS picks and parlay: Predicting correct scores in Thursday's matches [July 16, 2026]
The MLS returns to action on Thursday and we've used the Dimers data to find the most likely correct score results across all matches.
Soccer betting takes on a new look as Major League Soccer returns on Thursday, July 16 to kick off the second half of the 2026 season, and Dimers' MLS predictions are ready for the first slate back from the World Cup break, from our best MLS bets to predicted scorelines for every match.
All season long, Dimers' data-driven algorithms simulate every MLS contest thousands of times, processing 1,000s of inputs across expected-goals metrics, rosters, recent form, and player-level data to predict the precise chance of every possible outcome in a match, as well as long-term outcomes like who will win the MLS Cup.
A clean sweep for the Dimers model in the first semifinal! 🔥🔥
— Dimers (@DimersCom) July 14, 2026
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These scores can be utilized in a variety of ways, from betting on longshot results in a round robin parlay, to engineering Both Teams to Score probabilities.
Rather than simply chasing the single highest-probability scoreline in each match, which tends to skew toward the draw more often than not, we're focusing on the correct score that best lines up with multiple Dimers datapoints in each match, making full use of the data that Dimers Pro subscribers have at their fingertips.
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For the first night back from the break, we've got a four-match slate to bet on:
⚽ Sporting KC vs. St. Louis City
Below, we'll compare each of these matches' most likely result with the correct score that aligns with every datapoint, building a four-leg round robin parlay.
MLS correct score picks and round robin parlay [Thursday, July 16]
CF Montreal vs. Toronto
Most likely result: 1-1 draw at 10.6%
The score to bet: Montreal 2-1 (+850 on FanDuel)
Montreal and Toronto kick off the "Canadian Classique" tied at 14 points apiece, with Montreal 11th in the Eastern Conference and Toronto two spots behind.
The Dimers model's single most-likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 10.6%, but the win probabilities tell a different story; Montreal sit as a 46% favorite on the moneyline compared to just 30.6% for Toronto and 23.3% for a draw. Add in a 60.6% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals, and a 2-1 Montreal win (9.1%) threads the needle between the model's favorite and its expectation of goals at both ends.
![1784216815926 - MLS picks and parlay: Predicting correct scores in Thursday's matches [July 16, 2026]](https://cdn.cosmicjs.com/92af9d10-812d-11f1-90a0-bb34f9b6dfc3-1784216815926.png)
Montreal was the club playing with more confidence heading into the break and while both teams carry negative goal differentials and neither has been convincing defensively, Toronto hasn't won in 9 matches.
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Vancouver vs. Chicago
Most likely result: 1-1 draw at 10.3%
The score to bet: 2-2 draw (+1000 on FanDuel)
The Whitecaps enter this stretch of the season in the running for the Supporters' Shield, sitting atop the entire league on goal difference at +22, while Chicago return third in the East off a three-game winning streak before the break.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 62.6% probability in this one, and the moneyline is as close as it is in any of tonight's matches with Vancouver's 42.5% edge over Chicago's 34.3% and 23.2% for the draw, which is we're looking, with 2-2 coming at a 6.7% probability.
![1784216795446 - Subscriber analysis - MLS picks and parlay: Predicting correct scores in Thursday's matches [July 16, 2026]](https://cdn.cosmicjs.com/868105b0-812d-11f1-90a0-bb34f9b6dfc3-1784216795446.png)
Vancouver own the league's best goal difference and have been one of MLS's most potent attacks, led by Brian White's 10 goals, while also fielding the league's second-stingiest defense. Chicago, meanwhile, will look to debut marquee free-agent signing Robert Lewandowski to Chicago's attack led by league-leading scorer Hugo Cuypers.
All that points to a back-and-forth match with true scoring potential on both sides.
St. Louis City vs. Sporting KC
Most likely result: 2-1 St. Louis at 9.6%
The score to bet: St. Louis 2-1 (+800 on FanDuel)
St. Louis head into Thursday on a five-match unbeaten run heading into the break, while Sporting KC return as the Western Conference's most out-of-form side, sitting at the bottom of the overall MLS table with the worst goal differential in the league.
This play aligns with our most likely score and it also carries the biggest over-probability of the four matches on the slate. Over 2.5 goals sits at 66.6%, nearly matching St. Louis's 66.5% win probability, compared to just 15.4% for a Sporting KC win and 18.2% for a draw.
![1784216768398 - Subscriber analysis - MLS picks and parlay: Predicting correct scores in Thursday's matches [July 16, 2026]](https://cdn.cosmicjs.com/765f8940-812d-11f1-90a0-bb34f9b6dfc3-1784216768398.png)
Other St. Louis scorelines like 3-0 or 3-1 sit in a similar range around 7% individually, but St. Louis isn't exactly a top-tier attacking team either; they've managed only two clean sheets in MLS play this season and sit 12th in the West.
At +800, the price is relatively close to fair odds of +940, though still under our best price.
Seattle vs. Portland
Most likely result: 2-1 Seattle at 9.9%
The score to bet: Seattle 2-0 (+950 on FanDuel)
The Sounders sit inside the playoff picture in the Western Conference while Portland arrive 13th and outside the line, with their lone win leading up to the break coming against last place Sporting KC.
For the first time in these matches, we'll go slightly against one of the datapoints, but there's a good reason. Over 2.5 goals sits at 61.8%, and the model gives Seattle a strong 62.2% win probability, compared to just 17.7% for Portland and 20.1% for a draw. However, Under 2.5 is one of our model's best value bets of the night, a 36.7% chance at 4.4% edge against odds around +200.
Though Seattle has played 13 matches to the rest of the league's 14 or 15, they've allowed the fewest goals at 11 all season, tied with Nashville who lead the East.
![1784216740642 - Subscriber analysis - MLS picks and parlay: Predicting correct scores in Thursday's matches [July 16, 2026]](https://cdn.cosmicjs.com/6621ab30-812d-11f1-90a0-bb34f9b6dfc3-1784216740642.png)
A 2-0 clean sheet is not far behind our most likely score with a 9.1% probability, and +950 odds make this a fair price, the best single bet of these four scores.
At +950, this is another price that pays out comfortably relative to the model's implied probability.
Play these picks as a round robin
Each of these bets is a longshot, at around a 7-10% probability, it means each of them has about a 9 in 10 chance of losing.
The parlay of all four at +935450 carries a minuscule implied probability, so managing bankroll is incredibly important here.
But at their long odds, an equal straight bet on each would return a profit if one hits, or a round robin would return a profit if any combination of 2 hit, with a big payday on the way if 3 or more play out as hoped.
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
