Cubs vs. Reds prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [7/12/2026]
Get Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Cincinnati Reds will face the Chicago Cubs, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Great American Ball Park on Sunday, starting at 1:40 PM ET.
Andrew Abbott (5-5, 3.92 ERA) will start for the Reds, pitting him against Matthew Boyd (4-1, 4.31 ERA) for the Cubs.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 53.6% win probability over the Reds.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Cubs vs. Reds matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 53.6% chance of defeating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 57.2% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 50.7% chance of going over,.
Cubs vs. Reds odds [7/12/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cubs | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+133) | +1.5 (-138) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +117 |
| Total | o9.5 (+104) | u9.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cubs vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | novig+133 |
| Moneyline | Reds | novig+117 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | polymarket+104 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cubs vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Reds and Cubs at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to start at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 53.6% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
