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Reds vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Monday.
MLB action continues on Monday at 7:10 PM ET as the Cincinnati Reds face off with the favored Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs will have Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.06 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Reds have opted for Chase Petty (0-0, 0.00 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Reds vs. Cubs game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 63% chance of beating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the run line, while the 11.5-run over/under has a 56% chance of staying under.
Reds vs. Cubs odds [5/4/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Reds | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-104) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +180 | -209 |
| Total | o11.5 (-108) | u11.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Reds vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +180 |
| Total | Under 11.5 | -110 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 11.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Reds vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB game between the Cubs and Reds at Wrigley Field is scheduled to start at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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