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Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Why Magpies are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 7 matchup [4/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Essendon Bombers will take on the favored Collingwood Magpies in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 1:20 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Magpies as the most likely winner of the Magpies vs. Bombers game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Bombers vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 7 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's AFL game between the Magpies and Bombers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Magpies a 71% chance of defeating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Magpies (-16.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 177.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Collingwood vs. Essendon odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Magpies | Bombers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -256 | +195 |
| Line (Spread) | -16.5 (-115) | +16.5 (-115) |
| Total | o177.5 (-115) | u177.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Magpies vs. Bombers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Magpies -16.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Magpies | -256 |
| Total | Under 177.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bombers vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Bombers and Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 1:20 AM ET.
- Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Essendon Bombers
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Time: 1:20 AM ET/10:20PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Magpies, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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