Sun vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [7/19/2026]
Get Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Phoenix Mercury and Connecticut Sun will meet in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Sunday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, powered by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Sun, featuring Leila Lacan, Brittney Griner and Olivia Nelson-Ododa.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sun vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 68.4% chance of defeating the Sun.
According to our model, the Mercury (-4.5) have a 51.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 165.5 points has a 55.1% chance of staying under,.
Sun vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sun | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-110) | -4.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +186 | -170 |
| Total | o165.5 (-108) | u165.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sun vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury -4.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | -170 |
| Total | Under 165.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sun vs. Mercury player props
Looking for Sun vs. Mercury WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Leila Lacan is expected to lead the Sun with 14 points, 2 rebounds and 5 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 15% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sun prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leila Lacan | 14 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 31 |
| Brittney Griner | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 29 |
| Diamond Miller | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| Kennedy Burke | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 44 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| Alexa Held | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
Sun vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Mercury and Sun at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Sunday, July 19, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 68.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
