Portugal vs. Croatia prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 32]
Get Portugal vs Croatia predictions for World Cup 2026 Thursday.
Portugal will square off with Croatia in the round of 32 of the World Cup 2026 at BMO Field on Thursday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts Portugal as the most likely winner of the Portugal vs. Croatia game.
Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Portugal vs. Croatia prediction: Who will win and advance to the Round of 16?
Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 56.3% chance of Portugal winning, a 20.8% chance for Croatia, and a 22.9% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 53.9% chance of going over, with a 53.5% chance that both teams find the net. In the win to nil market, Portugal holds a 30.4% probability to win without conceding, with Croatia given a 10.3% chance.
For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is Portugal to win or draw at 79.2%.
A quick reminder: standard World Cup markets apply to 90 minutes of regulation play only, excluding extra time unless stated otherwise. This differs from sports like the NBA, where overtime is typically included.
Croatia vs. Portugal odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Portugal | Croatia | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -140 | +420 | +280 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -135 | +116 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Portugal vs. Croatia picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Croatia @ +420 via FanDuel
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +116 via FanDuel
- Win to Nil: Croatia @ +725 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: Portugal or Croatia @ -350 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ +120 via DraftKings
According to our best World Cup 2026 bets, the top play to make on this game is Croatia to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Although they are not the most likely winner of the match, the edge provided on Croatia's odds provide the best value right now.
Portugal vs. Croatia: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portugal 1-1 Croatia | 10.8% |
| Portugal 1-0 Croatia | 10.7% |
| Portugal 2-1 Croatia | 9.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.5% chance of both sides finding the net and a 46.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Portugal vs. Croatia player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Portugal-Croatia:
Portugal
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 38.0% probability
- Joao Felix: 23.1% probability
- Bruno Fernandes: 21.4% probability
- Pedro Neto: 15.8% probability
- Joao Neves: 10.5% probability
Croatia
- Ante Budimir: 17.4% probability
- Martin Baturina: 11.5% probability
- Nikola Vlasic: 11.4% probability
- Ivan Perisic: 10.0% probability
- Luka Modric: 8.7% probability
Portugal vs. Croatia game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's soccer World Cup matchup between Portugal and Croatia at BMO Field is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portugal vs. Croatia
- Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: BMO Field
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
DraftKings promo for Portugal vs. Croatia
If you're looking to get money down on Portugal or Croatia, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can bet $5 and receive $200 in bonus bets instantly.
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Portugal has a 56.3% win probability on Thursday, Croatia has a 20.8% win probability, and there is a 22.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
