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Mavericks vs. Pelicans prediction: New Orleans favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [3/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions for NBA Monday.
The New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks will lock horns in NBA action at Smoothie King Center on Monday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Pelicans as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Pelicans game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pelicans lineup will feature stars like Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray, while the Mavericks will rely on Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall and Brandon Williams.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Mavs vs. Pelicans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA game between the Mavericks and Pelicans 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Pelicans a 74% chance of defeating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Pelicans winning 122-115.
According to our model, the Mavericks (+8.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 240.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mavericks | Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | +280 | -350 |
| Total | o240.5 (-108) | u240.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks +8.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | +280 |
| Total | Under 240.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +8.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans player props
Looking for Dallas vs. New Orleans NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Smoothie King Center.
Cooper Flagg is expected to lead the Mavericks with 22 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists, while Trey Murphy is projected to have 24 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Pelicans.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Mavericks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 22 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 43 |
| Naji Marshall | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 32 |
| B. Williams | 15 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 29 |
| P.J. Washington | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 30 |
| Max Christie | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 24 |
Pelicans prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pelicans:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy | 24 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 46 |
| Zion Williamson | 23 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 41 |
| Dejounte Murray | 19 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 43 |
| Saddiq Bey | 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 33 |
| Herbert Jones | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
Mavs vs. Pelicans game-day updates and essential details
Monday's game between the Pelicans and Mavericks at Smoothie King Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Date: Monday, March 16, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Smoothie King Center
Conclusion
We predict the Pelicans, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Monday, with Trey Murphy projected for a game-high 46 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Pelicans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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