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Nuggets vs. Grizzlies prediction: Why Denver is favored to win Wednesday's NBA matchup [3/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies predictions for NBA Wednesday.
The Memphis Grizzlies will square off with the favored Denver Nuggets in NBA action at FedExForum on Wednesday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Nuggets as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Grizzlies game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Grizzlies lineup will feature players like Ty Jerome, Jaylen Wells and GG Jackson, while the Nuggets will rely on Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Cameron Johnson.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Nuggets and Grizzlies 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Nuggets an 83% chance of defeating the Grizzlies. Our predicted final score has the Nuggets winning 127-116.
According to our model, the Grizzlies (+12.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 246.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -12.5 (-108) | +12.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -750 | +560 |
| Total | o246.5 (-112) | u246.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Grizzlies +12.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Grizzlies | +560 |
| Total | Under 246.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Under 246.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies player props
Betting on Denver vs. Memphis NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at FedExForum.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets with 29 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists, while Ty Jerome is projected to have 18 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists for the Grizzlies.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 29 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 70 |
| Jamal Murray | 26 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 48 |
| Cameron Johnson | 13 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Tim Hardaway | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
| Christian Braun | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
Grizzlies prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Grizzlies:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome | 18 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 33 |
| Jaylen Wells | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| GG Jackson | 14 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
| Cedric Coward | 13 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
| O. Prosper | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Grizzlies and Nuggets at FedExForum is scheduled to begin at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Date: Wednesday, March 18, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: FedExForum
Conclusion
We predict the Nuggets, with an 83% win probability, will likely beat the Grizzlies on Wednesday, with Nikola Jokic projected for a game-high 70 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Nuggets vs. Grizzlies insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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