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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prediction: Why Denver is favored to win Game 3 [2026 NBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves predictions for NBA Playoffs Thursday.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will square off with the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of their 2026 NBA Playoffs series at Target Center on Thursday, beginning at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Nuggets as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 3 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Timberwolves lineup will feature stars like Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels, while the Nuggets will rely on Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Wolves prediction: Who will win Game 3?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA Playoffs game between the Nuggets and Timberwolves, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Nuggets a 57% chance of beating the Timberwolves in Game 3 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Nuggets winning 117-115.
According to our model, the Timberwolves (+2) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 234 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 3 odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Timberwolves |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2 (-115) | +2 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -135 | +116 |
| Total | o234 (-110) | u234 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves picks and best bet for Game 3
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Timberwolves +2 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Nuggets | -135 |
| Total | Under 234 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Timberwolves +2 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 3 player props
Betting on Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets with 29 points, 14 rebounds and 13 assists, while Anthony Edwards is projected to have 29 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Timberwolves.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 29 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 73 |
| Jamal Murray | 29 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 52 |
| Aaron Gordon | 16 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Christian Braun | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
| Cameron Johnson | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
Timberwolves prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Timberwolves:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | 29 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 51 |
| Julius Randle | 20 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 39 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 31 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| D. DiVincenzo | 12 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 27 |
Nuggets vs. Wolves Game 3 updates and essential details
Thursday's Game 3 between the Timberwolves and Nuggets in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Target Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to determine the league's champion.
Sixteen teams, including the Nuggets and Timberwolves, made the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round of the NBA Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Make the most of Dimers' Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions by exploring the below offer from Novig.
Conclusion
We predict the Nuggets, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Timberwolves in Thursday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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