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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prediction: Why Denver is favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [4/30/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves predictions for NBA Playoffs Thursday.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will take on the favored Denver Nuggets in the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Target Center on Thursday, starting at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Nuggets as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Timberwolves lineup will feature stars like Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels and Bones Hyland, while the Nuggets will be led by Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Cameron Johnson.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Wolves prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Nuggets and Timberwolves, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Nuggets a 71% chance of beating the Timberwolves. Our predicted final score has the Nuggets winning 114-108.
According to our model, the Timberwolves (+7) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 223.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Timberwolves |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7 (-110) | +7 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -300 | +250 |
| Total | o223.5 (-108) | u223.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Timberwolves +7 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Timberwolves | +250 |
| Total | Over 223.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Timberwolves +7 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves player props
Betting on Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets with 30 points, 14 rebounds and 13 assists, while Julius Randle is projected to have 24 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists for the Timberwolves.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 30 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 76 |
| Jamal Murray | 29 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 53 |
| Cameron Johnson | 12 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
| Christian Braun | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| Tim Hardaway | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
Timberwolves prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Timberwolves:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 24 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 46 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 18 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 36 |
| Bones Hyland | 16 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 32 |
| T. Shannon | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
| Naz Reid | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
Nuggets vs. Wolves game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Timberwolves and Nuggets in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to start at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Date: Thursday, April 30, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Target Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual postseason tournament held to determine the league's champion.
Sixteen teams, including the Nuggets and Timberwolves, reached the NBA Playoffs 2026, which spans four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Make the most of Dimers' Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions by exploring the below offer from Novig.
Conclusion
We predict the Nuggets, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Timberwolves in Thursday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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