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Nuggets vs. Spurs prediction: San Antonio favored to win Sunday's NBA game [4/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs predictions for NBA Sunday.
The San Antonio Spurs will face the Denver Nuggets in NBA action at Frost Bank Center on Sunday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Spurs game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Spurs lineup will feature players like Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson, while the Nuggets will look to Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Jokic and Julian Strawther.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Spurs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA game between the Nuggets and Spurs, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Spurs a 77% chance of defeating the Nuggets. Our predicted final score has the Spurs winning 121-112.
According to our model, the Nuggets (+9.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 234.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Nuggets vs. Spurs odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-105) | -9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +350 | -375 |
| Total | o234.5 (-110) | u234.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Spurs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nuggets +9.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Nuggets | +350 |
| Total | Under 234.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Nuggets +9.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nuggets vs. Spurs player props
NBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Sunday's Denver vs. San Antonio game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Frost Bank Center.
Jonas Valanciunas is expected to lead the Nuggets with 18 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists, while Stephon Castle is projected to have 16 points, 5 rebounds and 8 assists for the Spurs.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Valanciunas | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 39 |
| Nikola Jokic | 16 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 40 |
| J. Strawther | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
| Bruce Brown | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| David Roddy | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
Spurs prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Spurs:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 40 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 15 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 33 |
| Keldon Johnson | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Dylan Harper | 14 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 31 |
| Devin Vassell | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
Nuggets vs. Spurs game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Spurs and Nuggets at Frost Bank Center is scheduled to begin at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
Conclusion
We predict the Spurs, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat the Nuggets in Sunday's NBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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