FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks: Top five HR hitters in the Dimers App today, April 21

Home run betting gets a boost today, April 21, as FanDuel's "Dinger Tuesday" promo is live on Tuesdays during the 2026 MLB season, with this year's version offering a choice between a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token, both eligible on any "To Hit a Home Run" wager for today's MLB games.

If you're new to the promotion or just need a refresher on the updated rules, we've got everything you need below, including today's top home run probabilities ranked by the Dimers model as seen with Dimers Pro.

Speaking of Dimers Pro, you can get every player's home run prediction every single day, making it the ultimate tool for home run betting in 2026. Sign up today and get a three-day free trial!

What Is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is FanDuel Sportsbook's long-running weekly MLB promotion, dropping every Tuesday during the baseball season. This year, FanDuel has changed the format with a Choose Your Own Reward option, giving bettors the two bonuses to pick from.

Here's how it works:

1. Find the Choose Your Own Reward carousel card on the FanDuel homepage and click "Choose Reward."
2. Select one of two options: a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token.
3. Click "Claim Reward" — it'll be loaded directly into your FanDuel account.
4. Apply it to any eligible "To Hit a Home Run" straight bet or parlay for today's MLB games.

Today's top home run probabilities – April 21, 2026

Our model has crunched the numbers across today's full MLB slate.

Below is a ranking of the best home run probabilities on the board and a breakdown of each matchup, with one game in particular featuring three of our highest probabilities.

1. Jo Adell (Angels)

Game: Blue Jays vs. Angels

Dimers Probability: 20.9%

FanDuel Odds: +350

Leading the way is Jo Adell of the Angels with just shy of a 21% home run probability on Dinger Tuesday when the Angels host the Blue Jays.

After turning in a career-best 37 home runs last year, Adell has hit 3 HR this season. Though he's not exhibiting quite the same power, he's hitting well, especially against lefties, like he'll face tonight when Patrick Corbin takes the mound.

All 3 of Adell's HR have come against LHP, and Corbin gave up a pair of HR to righthanded hitters in his first of two starts this year, and has allowed the third-most HR in all of MLB since 2022, and the Jays' bullpen has given up 14 dingers this year as well.

A chance of rain is in the forecast, but light wind blowing out and moderate temperature may help carry balls farther on Angel Stadium.

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays)

Game: Blue Jays vs. Angels

Dimers Probability: 20.9%

FanDuel Odds: +440

Right alongside Jo Adell is Blue Jays' slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a 29% home run probability and an edge to go along with it.

Anything better than +375 is an edge based on the data, and Vladdy gets that across the board, though his best value is at DraftKings.

Vladdy's got 2 HR this year, hitting one last night in Angel Stadium. He'd have as many as 5 in some parks and his overall expected HR have him slightly under, so he's due for a run according to the numbers.

So far this year, his two home runs have come off lefties, but he's historically hit 24+ HR off righties in three of his last four seasons and he gets RHP Jack Kochanowicz tonight.

Kochanowicz gives up a lot of hard contact, though his ground ball rate is among the Top 10% of the league, but Vlad has hit his primary pitch mix of sinker/slider well in his career.

Our edge play on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from the Dimers App.

3. Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays)

Game: Blue Jays vs. Angels

Dimers Probability: 19.4%

FanDuel Odds: +390

The third highest probability on the board also comes from this game on Daulton Varsho at 19.4% to hit a home run.

A lefty bat who's hit 18+ home runs in three of his last four seasons, Varsho hit 20 HR while playing just 71 games last year and is looking to replicate the power that had him on his best season-long pace of his career.

He's got 3 HR this year, all since April 10, a pair of them off righthanded pitchers, which he has always favored. Kochanowicz deploys a different pitch mix vs. lefties, favoring the changeup most of all, which is a pitch Varsho turned around with a .969 SLG last year and was his best pitch for power the year prior, setting up a good head-to-head matchup.

The Angels bullpen has struggles a bit with the 10th worst ERA and 10 HR allowed for some later game opportunities if Kochanowicz gets out clean.

4. Aaron Judge (Yankees)

Game: Yankees vs. Red Sox

Dimers Probability: 18.5%

FanDuel Odds: +260

The rivalry reignites on Dinger Tuesday when Aaron Judge steps into Fenway Park, where he's hit 6 HR over his past three seasons.

Every single one of Aaron Judge's 9 home runs this year have been no-doubters, meaning there's not a single MLB ballpark that would have kept the ball in, even the ones he hits towards left field where the Green Monster slumbers.

He'll face Red Sox young righty Connell Early, who's pitching well through his first four starts with 1 HR allowed, but has concerning barrel rate and exit velocity numbers that suggest he's been a little lucky, and his expected HR would be 1.9 so far.

Judge's 18.5% probability are lower than our model's fair odds, but boosting him with FanDuel's 50% Dinger Tuesday promo would take him right into that range.

5. Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)

Game: Phillies vs. Cubs

Dimers Probability: 18.4%

FanDuel Odds: +270

Kyle Schwarber rounds out the Top 5 on Tuesday as he looks for his 8th home run of the year in a familiar venue, Wrigley Field, with an 18.4% Dimers probability to go yard.

Schwarbs knows Wrigley well from his first six MLB season spent with the Cubs, hitting 121 home runs in that park during his time in Chicago.

Cubs starter Shota Imanaga hasn't faced many a ton of lefty batters in his career, but has a 1.05 HR/9 in 77.3 IP against that side since 2024, though Schwarber is struggling in the lefty-lefty matchup this season compared to year's past.

Favorable temps and wind blowing out in Wrigley also align for Shota's home run ball tendencies. You'll have to pay a little premium on Schwarber at his base price, but like Judge, the 50% profit boost takes him into fair territory.

Three ways to bet on Dinger Tuesday

1. High Probability approach

Back the players at the top of the probability list. You'll often be betting on the game's premier power hitters at shorter odds, but you're maximizing your chance of cashing. Pair this approach with the Profit Boost Token to squeeze some extra payout out of a high-confidence pick.

2. Maximum Value approach

Look for players where our model's probability significantly outpaces the implied probability in their FanDuel odds. Sometimes those will be top probability players, other times you'll have to check out our best MLB props if they're further down the board. These edges are where the real value always lies. Similarly, you can use the Profit Boost Token to turn a player who isn't a value play into a value play.

3. The Longshot Parlay

Stack two or more of today's value plays into a parlay for a significantly higher payout. Use the Bet Reset token to return your original wager in the form of bonus bets in case the wager loses. Just keep your unit size smaller than you'd use on a straight wager as parlays carry substantially higher variance.

Tips to picking your home run bets

A few key factors worth checking before locking in your picks:

• Matchup: How does the batter fare against this starter's primary pitch mix?
• Ballpark: Is there a short porch, elevation advantage, or favorable wind forecast?
• Bullpen: If the starter exits early, who's coming in — and are they prone to the long ball?
• Weather: Wind direction and temperature matter. Always check before first pitch.
• Head-to-Head History: Past at-bats against today's starter can reveal hidden edges.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.