Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Why Hawks are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 18 matchup [7/11/2026]
Get Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Saturday.
AFL action continues on Saturday at 5:35 AM ET as the Hawthorn Hawks lock horns with the Carlton Blues at Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Blues game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Blues vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 18 game?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 61.2% chance of defeating the Blues.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Hawks and Blues each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 156.5 points has a 50.2% chance of staying under,.
Hawthorn vs. Carlton odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Blues |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -185 | +145 |
| Line (Spread) | -8.5 (-115) | +8.5 (-115) |
| Total | o156.5 (-115) | u156.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Blues picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -8.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Blues | +145 |
| Total | Under 156.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Blues vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Blues and Hawks at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 5:35 AM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Carlton Blues
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 61.2% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
