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Astros vs. Orioles prediction: Baltimore favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [4/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles predictions for MLB Tuesday.
MLB action continues on Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET as the Houston Astros take on the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
The Orioles will start Shane Baz (0-2, 5.08 ERA), up against Kai-Wei Teng (1-1, 2.16 ERA) for the Astros.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's Astros vs. Orioles matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Orioles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Orioles, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Orioles a 53% chance of beating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of nine runs has a 52% chance of going over.
Astros vs. Orioles odds [4/28/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-164) | -1.5 (+149) |
| Moneyline | +116 | -135 |
| Total | o9 (-115) | u9 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Orioles picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Astros +1.5 | -164 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +116 |
| Total | Over 9 | -115 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Astros +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Orioles game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Orioles and Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to commence at 6:35 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: Tuesday, April 28, 2026
- Time: 6:35 PM ET/3:35PM PT
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Conclusion
We predict the Orioles, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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