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Rockets vs. Mavericks prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Saturday's NBA matchup [1/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks predictions for NBA Saturday.
The Dallas Mavericks will face the favored Houston Rockets in NBA action at American Airlines Center on Saturday, commencing at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Rockets vs. Mavericks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature players like Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington, while the Rockets will rely on Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Rockets vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NBA game between the Rockets and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Rockets a 73% chance of beating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 117-110.
According to our model, the Mavericks (+7.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 228.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Rockets vs. Mavericks odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rockets | Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7.5 (-118) | +7.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | -325 | +280 |
| Total | o228.5 (-105) | u228.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rockets vs. Mavericks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks +7.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | +280 |
| Total | Over 228.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Saturday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +7.5 at the spread.
Rockets vs. Mavericks player props
Betting on Rockets vs. Mavericks NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.
Kevin Durant is expected to lead the Rockets with 25 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, while Anthony Davis is projected to have 23 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mavericks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Rockets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Rockets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 25 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 44 |
| Alperen Sengun | 22 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 50 |
| Amen Thompson | 17 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 39 |
| Jabari Smith | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Reed Sheppard | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
Mavericks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 47 |
| Cooper Flagg | 20 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 41 |
| P.J. Washington | 14 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| B. Williams | 13 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
| Naji Marshall | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
Rockets vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between the Mavericks and Rockets at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Saturday, with Alperen Sengun projected for a game-high 50 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rockets vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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