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Rockets vs. Warriors prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for 26 points in Sunday's NBA game [4/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Chase Center on Sunday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Rockets vs. Warriors game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Warriors lineup will feature players like Stephen Curry, Kristaps Porzingis and De'Anthony Melton, while the Rockets will rely on Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Rockets vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Warriors, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Rockets a 63% chance of beating the Warriors. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 115-111.
According to our model, the Rockets (-3.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 225.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Rockets vs. Warriors odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rockets | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -162 | +142 |
| Total | o225.5 (-115) | u225.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rockets vs. Warriors picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rockets -3.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Rockets | -162 |
| Total | Under 225.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Rockets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rockets vs. Warriors player props
Betting on Houston vs. Golden State NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.
Kevin Durant is expected to lead the Rockets with 26 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Stephen Curry is projected to have 24 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists for the Warriors.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Rockets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Rockets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 26 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 47 |
| Amen Thompson | 19 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 43 |
| Alperen Sengun | 18 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 45 |
| Reed Sheppard | 15 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 32 |
| Jabari Smith | 15 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
Warriors prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Warriors:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 24 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 41 |
| K. Porzingis | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| D. Melton | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
| Gui Santos | 13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| B. Podziemski | 12 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
Rockets vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Warriors and Rockets at Chase Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
- Date: Sunday, April 5, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Chase Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Warriors on Sunday, with Kevin Durant projected for a game-high 47 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rockets vs. Warriors insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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