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Lakers vs. Warriors prediction: Golden State to win, LeBron James projected for 25 points in Thursday's NBA game [4/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors predictions for NBA Thursday.
The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers will meet in NBA action at Chase Center on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Warriors as the most likely winner of the Lakers vs. Warriors game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Warriors lineup will feature players like De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski and Gary Payton, while the Lakers will rely on LeBron James, Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura.
Luka Doncic will not be on the court, with the Slovenian star out for this one.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Lakers vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Lakers and Warriors, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Warriors a 57% chance of beating the Lakers. Our predicted final score has the Warriors winning 111-109.
According to our model, the Warriors (-1.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 221.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Lakers vs. Warriors odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lakers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-105) | -1.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -110 |
| Total | o221.5 (-112) | u221.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lakers vs. Warriors picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors -1.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Warriors | -110 |
| Total | Under 221.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Warriors to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lakers vs. Warriors player props
Betting on Lakers vs. Warriors NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.
LeBron James is expected to lead the Lakers with 25 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists, while De'Anthony Melton is projected to have 16 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists for the Warriors.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Lakers prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Lakers are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 25 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 54 |
| Luke Kennard | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| Rui Hachimura | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25 |
| Deandre Ayton | 12 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Jake LaRavia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
Warriors prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Warriors:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Melton | 16 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 33 |
| B. Podziemski | 16 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 35 |
| Gary Payton | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| LJ Cryer | 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 21 |
| Pat Spencer | 12 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 30 |
Lakers vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Warriors and Lakers at Chase Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
- Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Chase Center
Conclusion
We predict the Warriors, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Lakers in Thursday's NBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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