Jun 5, 2026
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Read Article Lakers vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Game 1 [2026 NBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Playoffs Tuesday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers will meet in Game 1 of their NBA Playoffs series at Paycom Center on Tuesday, with tipoff at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Lakers vs. Thunder Game 1 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell, while the Lakers will rely on Austin Reaves, LeBron James and Rui Hachimura.
Luka Doncic will miss the game though with the Slovenian star out for this one.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Lakers vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win Game 1?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NBA Playoffs game between the Lakers and Thunder, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder an 88% chance of beating the Lakers in Game 1 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 113-99.
According to our model, the Lakers (+15.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 212.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Lakers vs. Thunder Game 1 odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lakers | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +15.5 (-106) | -15.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +610 | -900 |
| Total | o212.5 (-110) | u212.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lakers vs. Thunder picks and best bet for Game 1
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lakers +15.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Lakers | +610 |
| Total | Over 212.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Tuesday, the top play to make on this game is Lakers +15.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lakers vs. Thunder Game 1 player props
NBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the Lakers vs. Thunder matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Austin Reaves is expected to lead the Lakers with 21 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Lakers prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Lakers are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 21 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 41 |
| LeBron James | 21 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 49 |
| Rui Hachimura | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 24 |
| Deandre Ayton | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Marcus Smart | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 39 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 15 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 30 |
| I. Hartenstein | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 30 |
| Cason Wallace | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
Lakers vs. Thunder Game 1 updates and essential details
Tuesday's Game 1 between the Thunder and Lakers in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to decide the league's champion.
A total of 16 teams, including the Lakers and Thunder, reached the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which spans four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat the Lakers in Tuesday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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