...
...
Read Article
Grizzlies vs. Rockets prediction: Houston favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [4/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Sunday.
NBA action continues on Sunday at 8:30 PM ET as the Memphis Grizzlies lock horns with the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Grizzlies vs. Rockets game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature players like Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason and Aaron Holiday, while the Grizzlies will look to Javon Small, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Dariq Whitehead.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA game between the Grizzlies and Rockets, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Rockets an 86% chance of defeating the Grizzlies. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 121-108.
According to our model, the Grizzlies (+14.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 230.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Grizzlies | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +14.5 (-105) | -14.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | +725 | -800 |
| Total | o230.5 (-108) | u230.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Grizzlies +14.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Grizzlies | +725 |
| Total | Under 230.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Grizzlies +14.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets player props
NBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Sunday's Memphis vs. Houston matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
Javon Small is expected to lead the Grizzlies with 15 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists, while Reed Sheppard is projected to have 16 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Grizzlies prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Grizzlies are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Small | 15 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 33 |
| O. Prosper | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 27 |
| Dariq Whitehead | 14 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25 |
| Rayan Rupert | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| Taj Gibson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Sheppard | 16 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 35 |
| Tari Eason | 14 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Aaron Holiday | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| Clint Capela | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 32 |
Grizzlies vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Rockets and Grizzlies at Toyota Center is scheduled to begin at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Grizzlies in Sunday's NBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure