Heat vs. Hornets prediction: Why Charlotte is favored to win Tuesday's NBA Play-In matchup [4/14/2026]

The Charlotte Hornets will square off with the Miami Heat in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament at Spectrum Center on Tuesday, commencing at 7:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Hornets as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Hornets game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Hornets lineup will feature players like LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel, while the Heat will be led by Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Norman Powell.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Heat vs. Hornets prediction: Who will win NBA Play-In game?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Hornets, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Hornets a 67% chance of beating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Hornets winning 116-111.

According to our model, the Heat (+5.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 227.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Heat vs. Hornets odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Heat	Hornets
Spread	+5.5 (+100)	-5.5 (-120)
Moneyline	+220	-238
Total	o227.5 (-106)	u227.5 (-114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Heat vs. Hornets picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Heat +5.5	+100
Moneyline	Heat	+220
Total	Over 227.5	-106

According to our best NBA bets for Tuesday, the top play to make on this game is Heat +5.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Heat vs. Hornets player props

NBA prop bets are a great way to wager on the Miami vs. Charlotte game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Spectrum Center.

Tyler Herro is expected to lead the Heat with 21 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, while LaMelo Ball is projected to have 24 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists for the Hornets.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Heat prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Tyler Herro	21	5	5	2	39
Bam Adebayo	20	10	3	2	43
Norman Powell	17	3	2	2	29
Andrew Wiggins	14	5	3	2	30
Jaime Jaquez	14	4	4	1	27

Hornets prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Hornets:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
LaMelo Ball	24	6	8	5	51
Brandon Miller	23	6	4	3	41
Kon Knueppel	21	6	4	3	38
Miles Bridges	17	6	3	2	33
Coby White	13	3	3	2	24

Heat vs. Hornets game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's matchup between the Hornets and Heat at Spectrum Center is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets
• Date: Tuesday, April 14, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Spectrum Center

The NBA Play-In Tournament features the teams that ranked 7th through 10th in each conference, including the Heat and Hornets, fighting for a berth in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

The winner of the Miami vs. Charlotte matchup will advance to NBA_2025_176_CHA_MIA.

Conclusion

We predict the Hornets, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Heat in Tuesday's NBA Play-In Tournament matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.