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Heat vs. Pacers prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [3/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Indiana Pacers will face the favored Miami Heat in NBA action at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday, commencing at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Heat as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Pacers game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pacers lineup will feature stars like Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Obi Toppin, while the Heat will rely on Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Pacers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Pacers, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Heat a 74% chance of defeating the Pacers. Our predicted final score has the Heat winning 125-118.
According to our model, the Pacers (+8.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 245.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.
Heat vs. Pacers odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Pacers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -8.5 (-108) | +8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -350 | +285 |
| Total | o245.5 (-106) | u245.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Pacers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pacers +8.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Pacers | +285 |
| Total | Under 245.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Under 245.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Heat vs. Pacers player props
NBA prop bets are a great way to wager on the Miami vs. Indiana matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Bam Adebayo is expected to lead the Heat with 22 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists, while Pascal Siakam is projected to have 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pacers.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 22 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 45 |
| Tyler Herro | 22 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 39 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 31 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 15 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
| Pelle Larsson | 13 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
Pacers prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pacers:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 23 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 41 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 17 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 37 |
| Obi Toppin | 12 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
| Quenton Jackson | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| T.J. McConnell | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 24 |
Heat vs. Pacers game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Pacers and Heat at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to begin at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
- Date: Sunday, March 29, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Conclusion
We predict the Heat, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat the Pacers on Sunday, with Bam Adebayo projected for a game-high 45 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Pacers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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