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Heat vs. Raptors prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [4/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors predictions for NBA Thursday.
The Toronto Raptors will take on the Miami Heat in NBA action at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Raptors as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Raptors game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Raptors lineup will feature stars like Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes, while the Heat will look to Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Norman Powell.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Raptors prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Raptors, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Raptors a 66% chance of defeating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Raptors winning 120-115.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Heat and Raptors each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 236.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Heat vs. Raptors odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Raptors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-115) | -4.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +150 | -166 |
| Total | o236.5 (-108) | u236.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Raptors picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Raptors -4.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Raptors | -166 |
| Total | Under 236.5 | -106 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Raptors to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Heat vs. Raptors player props
Looking for Miami vs. Toronto NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Scotiabank Arena.
Tyler Herro is expected to lead the Heat with 22 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists, while Brandon Ingram is projected to have 21 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Raptors.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 22 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 38 |
| Bam Adebayo | 19 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 43 |
| Norman Powell | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 16 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 29 |
Raptors prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Raptors:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram | 21 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 38 |
| RJ Barrett | 21 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 38 |
| Scottie Barnes | 18 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 45 |
| I. Quickley | 14 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 12 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 29 |
Heat vs. Raptors game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Raptors and Heat at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
- Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Raptors, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Heat in Thursday's NBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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