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Bucks vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [2/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Thursday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Milwaukee Bucks in NBA action at Paycom Center on Thursday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Bucks vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, while the Bucks will look to Kevin Porter, Ryan Rollins and Cam Thomas.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Bucks vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Bucks and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Thunder an 81% chance of defeating the Bucks. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 111-101.
According to our model, the Bucks (+11.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 213.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Bucks vs. Thunder odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bucks | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +11.5 (-108) | -11.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +385 | -500 |
| Total | o213.5 (-106) | u213.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bucks vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bucks +11.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Bucks | +385 |
| Total | Over 213.5 | -106 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Bucks +11.5 at the spread.
Bucks vs. Thunder player props
NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Thursday's Milwaukee vs. Oklahoma City matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Kevin Porter is expected to lead the Bucks with 18 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists, while Chet Holmgren is projected to have 18 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Bucks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Bucks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Porter | 18 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 44 |
| Ryan Rollins | 17 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 36 |
| Cam Thomas | 16 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
| Myles Turner | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
| Isaiah Joe | 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 25 |
| Cason Wallace | 11 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Jaylin Williams | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
Bucks vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Thunder and Bucks at Paycom Center is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Thursday, February 12, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 81% win probability, will likely beat the Bucks on Thursday, with Kevin Porter projected for a game-high 44 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bucks vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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