MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Astros vs. Blue Jays play [6/22/2026]

Astros vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs (+115)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 52.3%
• Matchup: Astros vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Astros vs. Blue Jays at +115 odds. A 52.3% probability produces an edge of 5.8%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Braves vs. Padres Over 7.5 runs (+111)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 53.2%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Padres (10:10PM ET)

Braves vs. Padres over 7.5 runs carries a 5.7% edge and a probability of 53.2% at +111 odds, according to our model.

Royals vs. Rays Over 7.5 runs (+115)

• Edge: 5.0%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Matchup: Royals vs. Rays (6:40PM ET)

Royals vs. Rays Over 7.5 runs at +115 odds shows a 5.0% edge, supported by a 51.5% probability in simulations.

Dodgers vs. Twins over 9.5 runs (+111)

• Edge: 5.0%
• Probability: 52.5%
• Matchup: Dodgers vs. Twins (7:40PM ET)

A 5.0% edge and 52.5% probability make Dodgers vs. Twins over 9.5 runs a value play in the Dodgers vs. Twins matchup, per our model.

Tigers ML (+120)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 50.4%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Tigers (6:10PM ET)

Tigers ML at +120 odds presents a 4.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 50.4%.

Orioles vs. Angels Over 8.5 runs (-115)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 58%
• Matchup: Orioles vs. Angels (9:38PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 8.5 runs in Orioles vs. Angels at -115 odds, supported by an edge of 4.5%.

Tigers +1.5 (-141)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 63%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Tigers (6:10PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Tigers +1.5 at -141 odds. A 63% probability produces a 4.5% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Red Sox vs. Rockies Over 11.5 runs (-106)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 55.4%
• Matchup: Red Sox vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

A 3.9% edge on a 55.4% probability makes Over 11.5 runs at -106 odds a solid value play in today's Red Sox vs. Rockies matchup.

Reds +1.5 (-102)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 54.2%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Reds (7:10PM ET)

Our model projects value on Reds +1.5 at -102 odds. A 54.2% probability produces a 3.7% edge, making Reds the favorable side in today's matchup.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Over 8.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 54.4%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Over 8.5 runs at -104 odds shows a 54.4% probability and a 3.4% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Monday, 6/22/2026

As of 2:13AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [6/22/2026]

• Yankees vs. Tigers (6:10PM ET, Monday)
• Royals vs. Rays (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Rangers vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Astros vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)
• Brewers vs. Reds (7:10PM ET, Monday)
• Cubs vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Monday)
• Dodgers vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Monday)
• Guardians vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Monday)
• D-Backs vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET, Monday)
• Red Sox vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Monday)
• Orioles vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Monday)
• Braves vs. Padres (10:10PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for June 22, 2026, featuring plays such as Over 7.5 runs in the Astros vs. Blue Jays matchup and Over 7.5 runs in the Braves vs. Padres matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.