MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Rockies vs. Diamondbacks play [5/21/2026]

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks over 9.5 runs (+106)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 56.8%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has identified value on over 9.5 runs in Rockies vs. Diamondbacks at +106 odds. A 56.8% probability produces an edge of 8.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Pirates vs. Cardinals over 7.5 runs (+115)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 51.4%
• Matchup: Pirates vs. Cardinals (1:15PM ET, Thursday)

Pirates vs. Cardinals over 7.5 runs carries a 4.9% edge and a probability of 51.4% at +115 odds, according to our model.

Mets vs. Nationals over 7.5 runs (-115)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Mets vs. Nationals (4:05PM ET, Thursday)

Mets vs. Nationals over 7.5 runs at -115 odds shows a 4.7% edge, supported by a 58.2% probability in simulations.

Braves vs. Marlins over 7.5 runs (-111)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 57.1%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET, Thursday)

A 4.6% edge and 57.1% probability make Braves vs. Marlins over 7.5 runs at a value play in the Braves vs. Marlins matchup, per our model.

Athletics vs. Angels over 8.5 runs (+104)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 53.6%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Thursday)

Athletics vs. Angels over 8.5 runs at +104 odds presents a 4.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.6%.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees over 8.5 runs (+115)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 50.9%
• Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Thursday)

Our model finds value on over 8.5 runs in Blue Jays vs. Yankees at +115 odds, supported by an edge of 4.4%.

Guardians vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs (+119)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 49.2%
• Matchup: Guardians vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has uncovered value on Guardians vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs at +119 odds. A 49.2% probability produces a 3.5% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Yankees -1.5 (+160)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 41%
• Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Thursday)

A 2.5% edge on a 41% probability makes Yankees -1.5 at +160 odds a solid value play in today's Blue Jays vs. Yankees matchup.

Cardinals +1.5 (-147)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 61.7%
• Matchup: Pirates vs. Cardinals (1:15PM ET, Thursday)

Our model projects value on Cardinals +1.5 at -147 odds. A 61.7% probability produces a 2.2% edge, making Cardinals the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

MLB best bets summary: Thursday, 5/21/2026

As of 11:06AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/21/2026]

• Guardians vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Pirates vs. Cardinals (1:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Mets vs. Nationals (4:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Braves vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Blue Jays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Athletics vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Thursday)
• Rockies vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 21, 2026, featuring plays such as over 9.5 runs in the Rockies vs. Diamondbacks matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Pirates vs. Cardinals matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are based on current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.