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Read Article MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Astros vs. Cubs play [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Thursday, May 21, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for May 21, 2026 are here, with Astros vs. Cubs and Twins vs. Red Sox among the top plays identified by our model across Thursday’s MLB play.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, going over the latest baseball odds to unearth legitimate betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets today [5/21, updated 9:35PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 baseball bets, ranked by edge for Thursday, May 21, 2026.
Astros vs. Cubs over 7.5 runs (+113)
- Edge: 8.1%
- Probability: 55.1%
- Matchup: Astros vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Friday)
Our model has identified value on over 7.5 runs in Astros vs. Cubs at +113 odds. A 55.1% probability produces an edge of 8.1%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Twins vs. Red Sox over 7.5 runs (-108)
- Edge: 7.4%
- Probability: 59.4%
- Matchup: Twins vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET, Friday)
Twins vs. Red Sox over 7.5 runs carries a 7.4% edge and a probability of 59.4% at -108 odds, according to our model.
Dodgers vs. Brewers over 8.5 runs (+111)
- Edge: 6.5%
- Probability: 54%
- Matchup: Dodgers vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Friday)
Dodgers vs. Brewers over 8.5 runs at +111 odds shows a 6.5% edge, supported by a 54% probability in simulations.
Tigers vs. Orioles over 8.5 runs (+102)
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 54.5%
- Matchup: Tigers vs. Orioles (7:15PM ET, Friday)
A 5.0% edge and 54.5% probability make Tigers vs. Orioles over 8.5 runs at a value play in the Tigers vs. Orioles matchup, per our model.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays over 8.5 runs (+117)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 50.9%
- Matchup: Pirates vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Friday)
Pirates vs. Blue Jays over 8.5 runs at +117 odds presents a 4.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 50.9%.
Nationals vs. Braves over 9.5 runs (+125)
- Edge: 4.4%
- Probability: 48.9%
- Matchup: Nationals vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Friday)
Our model finds value on over 9.5 runs in Nationals vs. Braves at +125 odds, supported by an edge of 4.4%.
Rays vs. Yankees over 7.5 runs (-108)
- Edge: 4.0%
- Probability: 56%
- Matchup: Rays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Friday)
Our model has uncovered value on Rays vs. Yankees over 7.5 runs at -108 odds. A 56% probability produces a 4.0% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Guardians vs. Phillies over 6.5 runs (-125)
- Edge: 4.0%
- Probability: 59.5%
- Matchup: Guardians vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET, Friday)
A 4.0% edge on a 59.5% probability makes over 6.5 runs at -125 odds a solid value play in today's Guardians vs. Phillies matchup.
Mariners vs. Royals over 8.5 runs (+115)
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 50.2%
- Matchup: Mariners vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Friday)
Our model projects value on over 8.5 runs at +115 odds. A 50.2% probability produces a 3.7% edge, making the over the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.
Royals ML (+130)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 46.4%
- Matchup: Mariners vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Friday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Royals to defeat Mariners at +130 odds shows a 46.4% probability and a 2.9% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Thursday, 5/21/2026
As of 9:35PM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros vs. Cubs | Over 7.5 Runs | +113 @ Polymarket | 8.1% | 55.1% |
| Twins vs. Red Sox | Over 7.5 Runs | -108 @ Polymarket | 7.4% | 59.4% |
| Dodgers vs. Brewers | Over 8.5 Runs | +111 @ Polymarket | 6.5% | 54% |
| Tigers vs. Orioles | Over 8.5 Runs | +102 @ Polymarket | 5.0% | 54.5% |
| Pirates vs. Blue Jays | Over 8.5 Runs | +117 @ Polymarket | 4.9% | 50.9% |
| Nationals vs. Braves | Over 9.5 Runs | +125 @ Polymarket | 4.4% | 48.9% |
| Rays vs. Yankees | Over 7.5 Runs | -108 @ Kalshi | 4.0% | 56% |
| Guardians vs. Phillies | Over 6.5 Runs | -125 @ Polymarket | 4.0% | 59.5% |
| Mariners vs. Royals | Over 8.5 Runs | +115 @ Polymarket | 3.7% | 50.2% |
| Mariners vs. Royals | Royals ML | +130 @ Polymarket | 2.9% | 46.4% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/21/2026]
- Athletics vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Thursday)
- Rockies vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Thursday)
- Astros vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Friday)
- Guardians vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET, Friday)
- Cardinals vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Friday)
- Rays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Friday)
- Pirates vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Friday)
- Mets vs. Marlins (7:10PM ET, Friday)
- Twins vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET, Friday)
- Tigers vs. Orioles (7:15PM ET, Friday)
- Nationals vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Friday)
- Dodgers vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Friday)
- Mariners vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Friday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 21, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Astros vs. Cubs matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Twins vs. Red Sox matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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